Sunday, November 23, 2008

Fear and the World Markets

At a dinner tonight eight people were discussing the world markets. And the enduring topic was fear. Some of us had been following a thread on Hot Copper "warning from jim sinclair this is it"
and were commenting on what appeared to be some irrational views based purely on fear. (Now if you have not been to Hot Copper you must at least
Most at the table were optimistic about a market turn around...China is still in + growth , Japan has just announced a big loan (investment) to India...and don't forget the past decade of Japanese ambivalence about the growth of converted to positive...
The market will turn......when? soon! The people at the table were all serious investors ...and all except one (not me) were taking significant hits..but most were on a buy strategy over the next month. Why ..because fear leads to silly decisions.
I posted this on that Hot Copper thread

"Ah fear!!!......Some years ago I took my then 5 year old son to look at the old canons on Battery Hill at Port Fairy.

"What are they for?"
"Well they were to protect Australia over 100 years ago?"
"from what?'...
"Hmm just in case the Russians came?"
"Did they come?"
"No, they didn't"

"Well that was a waste of money!"

Enough said.....fear leads to some crazy decisions (just ask Geo.W.)"

So back then fear lead to profit making for canon factories.....look for the profits to be made from this bout of fear!

(The wine tonight was Willow Creek Piniot Noir 2004 (too early but superb) and Shelmerdine Heathcote Shiraz 2004 (time) and a few other quaffers.

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