Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Nuclear focus on India

A trade mission from the U.S. nuclear companies will visit India in December to check out potential large scale deals. They will meet with Indian government officials and the top brass from Indian nuclear companies.
It is interesting to note that Japan also has a group in India at the moment.
They are all there of course to get in on India’s rapidly expanding nuclear industry.
And America in October signed a deal to allow US companies to do technological and supply business with India.
So the race is on!
How much is the business potentially worth? $US150 billion over the next 25 years .
The CEO of GE-Hitachi (GEH) is quoted on the news wires as saying, "The trade mission is a historic step forward in promoting civilian nuclear cooperation between the world's largest democracies. We look forward to exploring opportunities that hold great promise, not only for our company and shareholders, but also economic opportunities that will create jobs, increase energy availability and improve the lives of the people of our two great nations."
Apparently the Russians have also had nuclear energy people in India during this month.
The impact of continuing developments in India, China and Europe will soon have a flow on effect to demand and the contract price of uranium.
Look out for a re-rating of Alliance Resources (AGS) and its B4M project here in South Australia Its partners, Heathgate, are of course very well connected in the nuclear business.

USA steps up to the China challenge.

The feds have just announced $800 billion in new funding to unfreeze credit for home buyers, consumers and small businesses.They know very well that this is a heavy weight bout and they do not want China to win...watch this space ...and the DOW will run on this news.

BHP's gift to China

So BHP has pulled the plug on its take over of RIO.. the reason? "market turn down and debt levels"...Hmm! red herrings....
Their action has caused an over reaction in London tonight...as if they didn't know...just think of the timing of the announcement!!..Anyway Chinese interests are buying right now with their ears pinned back. It is part of their strategy to control the supply chain...The long march continues.......
And of course BHP will be back with an offer once China injects some capital into RIO...but the horse has bolted.
Another one to China!!

Monday, November 24, 2008

China's continuing growth gets headlines

I have been very positive on the continuing growth of China and have previously commented on the very powerful stimulus package the Chinese government has been strategically rolling out.
The investments that the Government is also making outside China are a clear indication that China is confident that growth will continue. It is executing a careful plan to buy up supply and in so doing will have a major say in supply prices.

Now it is encouraging to see Black Rock Investment agreeing.News wires are reporting that UK-based Black Rock Investment, which has $US1.26 trillion ($A1.93 trillion) of assets under management, is stating that China is starting to recover from a downturn after the introduction of stimulus packages.Summaries of these strategies have been posted here on DeepLode.
"I do think we are starting to see the green shoots of recovery and also confidence coming back with regards to people's outlook for the Chinese economy," BlackRock portfolio manager Evy Hambro is reported as saying.
He further suggested that these green shoots are the beginning of the resurgence of the bull market.
As I have been saying..the long march continues and don't be left short on Australian resource juniors.

Citadel makes further progress

Owen Hegarty seems to be on another winner. Even though he is only listed as an advisor to Citadel his trademark is all over this one. Today's ASX announcement confirms big things in Saudi Arabia.


• RC drilling continues to outline significant gold-rich zones at Jabal Shayban.
• Good continuity of primary and oxide high-grade gold zones demonstrated.
• Results include:
o SH048RC – 31m at 6.89 g/t gold from 15m including 16m at 10.13 g/t.
o SH051RC – 42m at 4.59 g/t gold from 0m including 9m at 12.67 g/t.
o SH044RC – 76m at 2.19 g/t gold from 18m including 7m at 10.05 g/t.
• A diamond drilling rig has been mobilized to site and has commenced testing deeper targets within the Shayban Deposit.

No doubt about this one!!

Japan and India to develop Indian infra structure

Japan seems to have overcome its reluctance to invest heavily in India.It will now go ahead with its largest ever loan package for a single overseas project.The project, worth about 450 billion yen, will build a freight rail connection between New Delhi and Mumbai.This dedicated freight corridor will be about 1,500 kilometers long.
Japan's involvement is a clear sign that Japanese companies will continue to invest in India in a big way and this freight link will be an incentive for Japanese companies to further develop their assets in India. Japan obviously now sees India as a target for its private sector.
The spin off for Australia from any large infra- structure development in the Asian region is clear.

The bounce will come!!


Aborigines warned: no lease, no house

INDIGENOUS Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin warned yesterday that Aboriginal communities not prepared to sign leases in exchange for houses would go without.

Nice headline in The Age today.

Sorry we took your land..your culture..sorry we didn't sign any transfer of land when we took yours away....sorry we took your children away...sorry we shot you...sorry we put you in chains... sorry we wiped you out in Tassie....sorry sorry!...but you better sign up or we will say sorry mate as we put you in the streets and with the already homeless...Come home Kev and sort out this mess.The shame continues.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Fear and the World Markets

At a dinner tonight eight people were discussing the world markets. And the enduring topic was fear. Some of us had been following a thread on Hot Copper "warning from jim sinclair this is it"
and were commenting on what appeared to be some irrational views based purely on fear. (Now if you have not been to Hot Copper you must at least visit...hotcopper.com.au)
Most at the table were optimistic about a market turn around...China is still in + growth , Japan has just announced a big loan (investment) to India...and don't forget the past decade of Japanese ambivalence about the growth of India...now converted to positive...
The market will turn......when? soon! The people at the table were all serious investors ...and all except one (not me) were taking significant hits..but most were on a buy strategy over the next month. Why ..because fear leads to silly decisions.
I posted this on that Hot Copper thread

"Ah fear!!!......Some years ago I took my then 5 year old son to look at the old canons on Battery Hill at Port Fairy.

"What are they for?"
"Well they were to protect Australia over 100 years ago?"
"from what?'...
"Hmm just in case the Russians came?"
"Did they come?"
"No, they didn't"

"Well that was a waste of money!"

Enough said.....fear leads to some crazy decisions (just ask Geo.W.)"

So back then fear lead to profit making for canon factories.....look for the profits to be made from this bout of fear!

(The wine tonight was Willow Creek Piniot Noir 2004 (too early but superb) and Shelmerdine Heathcote Shiraz 2004 (time) and a few other quaffers.

Friday, November 21, 2008

China continues to stimulate economy

China's leading economist Zhou Qiren suggested today that China needs to lower its individual tax threshold to stimulate domestic consumption.
That means the Chinese Government will do that!
Zhou is the official "independent" economic commentator in China and his statements often "prove" that the Government is listening to independent opinions. He called for "aggressive tax-reduction measures" at corporate and personal levels to stimulate downward domestic demand brought by worsening external economic surroundings.
He hinted that the National People's Congress had already reached the consensus to do that (increase the benchmark of individual income taxation) If he "hints" it is a done deal!
Zhou from Peking University was speaking to 500 businessmen today at a management forum in Beijing. So what does that mean....My guess is the income earned before you pay individual tax will be tripled ie pay tax now on all income over 2000 yuan but after reforms only on income over 6000-8000yuan. And VAT 17% down to 6%. And that is a serious stimulus. So let's see!!
I source my information from internal Chinese news reports passed on to me by English speaking contacts.These reports sometimes appear on Western news wires.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

China's footprint on Australian resources gets bigger

As reported on the news wires this morning China's largest coal miner has paid A$299.9 million ($187.4 million) for a coal exploration licence in NSW. Shenhua Watermark Coal Pty Ltd, will pay an additional A$200 million to the New South Wales state government if the firm were to be subsequently granted a mining lease.
As continually suggested on this blog China will come out of this downturn (which is a Western markets disaster) as the prime economic force in the world. They are grabbing every opportunity. This is a very well constructed strategy....deals, one by one, all over the globe are giving China control over the resource supply chain.
The implications are clear...control the supply line and you control prices. The long march continues..hang on to your Oz miners.

Alliance resources to mine at the right time

"Obama taps nuclear for 80% emissions cut

President-elect Barack Obama has set a target of reducing US greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and reducing them by a further 80% by 2050, with safe nuclear energy being used alongside other clean energies.Speaking by video at a bipartisan summit convened by Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican Governor of California, Obama said that few challenges facing America, and the world, are more urgent than combating climate change. Obama said the science of climate change is beyond dispute and the facts are clear. Unless addressed, he said, climate change and the USA's dependence on foreign oil would continue to weaken the economy and threaten security.

Obama praised state governors and business that had already invested in clean energy, and said that Washington would no longer fail to show the same kind of leadership, delay was no longer an option, nor denial an acceptable response.

He announced that he would introduce a federal cap and trade system, a similar cap and trade emissions trading scheme is already in operation in the European Union.

Strong annual targets would be established that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions to return them to 1990 levels by 2020 and reduce them by a further 80% by 2050.

$15 billion will be invested each year to catalyse private sector efforts to build a 'clean energy future'. Obama said there will be "investment in solar power, wind power and next-generation biofuels. We'll tap nuclear power, while making sure it is safe, and we will develop clean coal technologies." This investment would help generate five million green jobs.

Obama also said that the work being carried out at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Poznan, Poland, in December was vital to the planet. Although he would not be attending that meeting, Obama committed the US to engage vigorously in future meetings once he had taken office and to lead the world to a new era of global cooperation on climate change. He closed by saying that any nation to join the cause of combating climate change would have an ally in the USA."

from World Nuclear News 20 Novemeber 2008

Guantanamo a measure for the Bush Administration

The five men who were ordered to be freed from Guantanamo on Thursday will become a symbol of much of what was wrong with the Bush Administration.Driven by a dangerous belief in a "God" given right to rule the planet George Bush thought he could do as he liked. And the question must be asked .."Where were the American people and their elected representatives while all this was happening?" Why were they silent?
And where was Justice Leon's sense of justice in 2002 when he declared detainees in Guantanamo to be without habeous corpus rights? Maybe he is brave enough to speak up now that George W. has been given his marching orders.
And surely George will not be so stupid to order an appeal.

Whatever, Western credibility has been trashed by Bush...but we are not innocent either..the "children overboard" and our detainee history is just as shameful as John Howard and his grey men blindly followed the tyrants of the U.S.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Ethics or Expendiency?

Who is financing piracy. Range Resources continues to make "charitable donations" to Puntland's government, including a $US250,000 payment for an airport redevelopment last year. Range Resources directors Mike Povey and Peter Landau flew to Puntland to hand over that cheque.Where does business stop and bribery start? And the ethics?

India the new car market

Just like China did in the past meltdown India is now building freeways to counter the effect of the global economic pause. The 100 kilometers (62 miles) of rural roads India is adding each day may save Asia's third- largest economy from the worst of a global recession.And of course they will buy cars to drive on them ..not from the USA of course but from China which is about to pour a few $$$$ into its car industry.The economic shift is happenning!

China the New Detroit

Interesting round of golf today with some visitors from up North. It seems that the Chinese Government is poised to pour a few billion into its car production industry to grab a decisive advantage over the ailing U.S. producers...not that the Chinese producers aren't ailing...they are. But with the U.S. administration not able (news wires say not wanting.. but the U.S. is bankrupt so not able is correct) China sees a great opportunity...even if for a year it produces scrap metal!..China has waited ...and waited.... now it will pour its scientific expertise into developing a green car that will take the world by storm and beat Detroit by miles.. Watch this space!

Saturday, November 15, 2008

China is smiling and growing

China maybe growing slower at the moment but don't factor too much slowdown in. They have stayed out of the sub-prime mortgage business that is destroying banks in the West. China will not be able to sell as much overseas as before, but they will create enough demand within the country to keep growth at 8% or 9% a year. Not as fast as in past years, but still a strong rate of growth. And Australian producers are in the frame. Why do I think this?...research and chats with operators in H.K. And they have the West on a credit line.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Bass Metals to shine in the recovery

How would you like to buy a company with
1.solid asset backing worth .27c,
2. profits still coming in and
3. exploration results that continue to be remarkable.
What would you pay?
.55c? .75c?....Well try .10c!!!
On the 29/9 Barry Fitzgerald wrote an extremely positive and upbeat column in The Age about Bass Metals and warned us to look out for the report on the Fossey Zone.. well it came out today and this market just yawned...
Watch for a big re-rating when some money starts to flow back into the markets. Here is an extract from the announcement.

"High grade drill intercepts at Fossey Zone

Bass Metals Ltd (ASX:BSM) is pleased to provide the following update on its recent drilling at the Fossey Zone, part of its 100% owned Hellyer Mine Project in NW Tasmania.
Further high grade polymetallic intercepts at Fossey Zone:
• 43.5 metres at 12.9 % zinc, 7.7 % lead, 0.4 % copper, 207 g/t silver and 2.6 g/t gold from 187.1 metres downhole, including;
• 12.6 metres at 22.4 % zinc, 13.5 % lead, 0.5 % copper, 367 g/t silver and 4.2 g/t gold (HLD985).
• 10.9 metres at 8.9 % zinc, 5.4 % lead, 0.3 % copper, 99 g/t silver and 1.5 g/t gold from 206.8 metres downhole (HLD983).
• 9.95 metres at 7.4 % zinc, 4.7 % lead, 0.4 % copper, 56 g/t silver and 1.5 g/t gold from 202.55 metres downhole (HLD979).
The Fossey Zone is an unmined zone of high grade polymetallic mineralisation comprising base and precious metals, generally associated with a massive barite zone, commonly with significant gold and silver mineralisation. Recently Bass Metals released an initial combined Mineral Resource (Indicated and Inferred) of 830,000 tonnes grading 9.1 % zinc, 4.6 % lead, 0.3 % Cu, 120 g/t silver and 2.5 g/t gold for the Fossey Zone at a 5 % (Pb+Zn) assay cut-off (refer ASX Report 30 September 2008). The addition of the new Fossey resource more than doubles the Company’s high grade, polymetallic resources at the Hellyer Mine Project (HMP) to 1.6 million tonnes at 8.1 % zinc, 4.4 % lead, 0.3 % copper, 104 g/t silver and 1.9 g/t gold. The entire resource inventory (HMP and Que River) now stands at 2.3 million tonnes."

Judge for yourself..but it seems a bargain.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Sunshines on Hearts Galore

Sunshine Heart (SHC) has a medical bit of apparatus that seems to reduce heart failure.The device seems to improve blood flow and to reduce the workload on the heart. An hour on the table is required. A small price I think.

The bitty bitty bit has been tested on humans in Australia and New Zealand but really the real test for any bio is in the U.S.

Sunshine has told us that six US medical institutions will enroll patients for its trial and the FDA has approved reneimbursement.This approval means the company will earn MANY $$ from the program. A buy for me.In any other market a big run......buy and hold..

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Taiwan gently gently softens attitudes

News wires are reporting that the Government in Taiwan will open the nation’s Universities to Chinese students and recognize Chinese academic credentials from 2009 at the earliest. So it appears the Government is looking to non controversial strategies to develop ties with China. There will be the usual rhetoric to make this acceptable to the Taiwanese people but both Governments know that the Straits can no longer be a dividing line.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Citadel on target in Saudi Arabia

I have posted previously on Citadel Resources . Yesterday they released the results from three cores from Jabal Sayid. The Company knew they were drilling into mineralised ore to get cores....but what impressed them was the high grades and consistency of the copper grades.In their report to the ASX they described the grades as" remarkable". Also, as they say in the announcement, the size of the strike is bigger than they knew prior to the drilling. So it is very significant progress, enough for them to set about revising the resource estimate. They have $25m in the bank, the backing of the Saudi Government and a strong local partner. And copper is on the rise again! Plus the results that have come in from Jabal Sheyban are also impressive.
Owen Hegarty can pick them. This is definitely one for the watch list!!!

Brilliant Wine And Under $20

I have opened a few bottles of this 2006 wine over the past week or two. It comes from a small winery with a wine maker committed to high quality fruit. The district is recognised as a great shiraz zone.
Wines from this region can cost over $50. The wine is under screw cap. Delicious is a fair description. Plenty of shiraz fruit aromas on the nose. It comes on to the palate with a gentle burst of cherry like flavours, nice touch of oak and lovely length on the swallow.Drinking well now but has another 10 years in it. And best of all it retails for about $18 and is readily available.
Well done Peter Cummins at Water Wheel Vineyards, Bridgewater on Loddon. (Bendigo Shiraz)

Sunday, November 9, 2008

China confirms its huge economic stimulus

China yesterday formally announced its huge economic strategy to stay ahead of the West. In a sweeping move at a time when major projects are being put off around the world, Beijing said it would spend an estimated $586 billion by 2010 on wide array of national infrastructure and social welfare projects, including constructing new railways, subways, airports and rebuilding communities devastated by an earthquake in southwest China in May. I have been writing about this for sometime now and the strategy has now been confirmed by the State Council on Sunday evening. This huge economic boost will add about 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product during each of the next two years.Beijing said it was loosening credit and encouraging lending as part of a more “pro-active fiscal policy.”
and “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed.”
The stimulus plan would be enormous for any country, let alone one whose gross domestic product is lower than most other major industrialized countries, at around $3.5 trillion this year.The announcement came less than a week before the Chinese President travels to Washington for a global economic summit meeting that will be attended by world leaders and hosted by President Bush. As stated in posts here the Chinese Government is determined to steal a march on the West while it is on its knees.

The Sadness of American Politics

Just a few weeks ago, at the height of the campaign, Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota told Chris Matthews of MSNBC that, when it came to Mr. Obama, “I’m very concerned that he may have anti-American views.”

But there she was on Wednesday, after narrowly escaping defeat because of those comments, saying she was “extremely grateful that we have an African-American who has won this year.” Ms. Bachmann, a Republican, called Mr. Obama’s victory, which included her state, “a tremendous signal we sent.” (who sent ? we?)

And it was not too long ago that Senator John McCain’s running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin accused Mr. Obama of “palling around with terrorists.”
But she took an entirely different tone on Thursday

“Barack Obama has been elected president,” Ms. Palin said. “Let us, let us — let him — be able to kind of savor this moment,
and not let the pettiness of maybe internal workings of the campaign erode any of the recognition of this historic moment that we’re in. And God bless Barack Obama and his beautiful family.”
She didn't get to two.

Will America survive as the 'United States" ?

SOMETHING interesting is happening in California because Arnold Schwarzenegger seems to have grasped the essential truth that no nation — not even the United States — can be managed successfully from the center once it reaches a certain scale. Moreover, the bold proposals that Mr. Schwarzenegger is now making for everything from universal health care to global warming point to the kind of decentralization of power which, once started, could easily shake up America’s fundamental political structure.

Governor Schwarzenegger is quite clear that California is not simply another state. “We are the modern equivalent of the ancient city-states of Athens and Sparta,” he recently declared. “We have the economic strength, we have the population and the technological force of a nation-state.” In his inaugural address, Mr. Schwarzenegger proclaimed, “We are a good and global commonwealth.”

Political rhetoric? Maybe. But California’s governor has also put his finger on a little discussed flaw in America’s constitutional formula. The United States is almost certainly too big to be a meaningful democracy. What does “participatory democracy” mean in a continent? Sooner or later, a profound, probably regional, decentralization of the federal system may be all but inevitable.
America is no longer the United States!!

George rapes Utah on his way out

Utah's canyon country is such a breath-taking landscape, and its place names bear that out. Desolation Canyon offers some of the best white-water rafting through wilderness quality landscapes. They are landscapes of soaring cliffs where the songs of canyon wrens and other birds echo up and down river, where the breezes sing to you as they ebb and flow through the goosenecks the Green River long ago cut through the sandstone. More than 1,000 pictographs and petroglyphs grace the canyon's walls, some cut by Fremont Indian artists, some by Ute shamans.

These and other slices of the public lands landscape deserve some form of protection for visitors today and tomorrow to enjoy.

And yet, the outgoing Bush administration is determined to open them to drilling rigs with all their associated access roads, noise, air, and, potentially, water pollution.How much is too much? When the oil and gas industry in Utah has nearly 3,500 drilling permits in hand, but which have not been acted upon, why is the Bush administration selling them more, particularly in sensitive areas around national parks and monuments?Because George is getting as much "good will" out of his presidency as possible.Interested in the good of the community..not likely...looking to his Directorships..post presidency

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Victorian Police and Hummers

Noticed Victorian Police cruising the CBD on Thursday in a jazzed up Hummer. It was not a good look at all..reminded me of the "police" in certain cities who are really the military arm of the Government.
Talk about isolating members of the police force from the citizens...Get out and walk.. or for city cruising how about an environmentally and socially friendly smaller car!

Goldman Sachs bullish on China

Goldman Sachs has come out on Friday with a very bullish position on China's economy. Deng Tishun their China guru expects the economy to stabilise in the second half of 2009 and to take the country's stock markets up with it.He suggests that
the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index which tracks China's 300 biggest listed companies, should rise at least 11 percent to 1,980 points next year. And he reckons Hong Kong's China Enterprise Index of top locally listed mainland companies may jump 53.4 percent to 8,900 points. He believes the stock market will benefit from attractive share valuations, improved liquidity and government stimulus plans.
In the first half of 2009 he goes for consumer-related companies, internet firms and telecommunication stocks and in the second half goes for banking, insurance, real estate, raw materials and transportation stocks .
I think that the criticism that the Chinese market was just too speculative has been tempered by the fact that Wall St. turned out to be a speculative driven greed machine and that the 60% fall in the Chinese market returns it to attractive earnings/price ratios. Deng Tishun is on the money!

Headlines mislead on the economy

The headlines of the major papers over the past few days have been quoting the IMF as another authority to confirm a "great depression","a complete collapse of western economies" etc etc!!
The IMF has not exactly covered itself with glory as an authority about anything. But that aside it has suggested nothing like what the headlines are screaming !!!
If you bother to go and read the report being quoted by the alarmist headline writers you will find this buried in the text...(unknown waters of course for headline writers).

"Activity in the advanced economies is now expected to contract by ¼ percent on an annual basis in 2009, down ¾ percentage points from the October 2008 WEO projections. This would be the first annual contraction during the postwar period, although the downturn is broadly comparable in magnitude to those that occurred in 1975 and 1982. A recovery is projected to begin late in 2009."

Now does that sound like the 1930's economy? pity to spoil a story with accuracy! We are not doomed..Buy !

Friday, November 7, 2008

Hot Copper threads the way

I continue to be impressed by how hotcopper.com.au attracts such on the money posts. Check it out for serious information and some fun.

Russia is sinking China is buying

Russian markets are paying a big price for Moscow's "reckless" decision to invade Georgia, which spurred capital to flee Russia and weakened its currency, a senior At least in part because of the Georgia crisis, Russian financial markets have lost nearly a third of their value, with losses in market capitalization of hundreds of billions of dollars.The Russian rouble has depreciated nearly 10 percent since Russia crushed an attempt last month by its pro-Western neighbor Georgia to retake the separatist region of South Ossetia. Capital is fleeing Russia, with billions leaving. Opportunity costs for Russia are huge with its plans to diversify the economy and rebuild infrastructure at risk. Just watch the Chinese pounce on the oil interests of the region

Thursday, November 6, 2008

China ups its nuclear generation target

News wires in China were yesterday reporting that China is considering increasing its total installed nuclear power generating capacity to 70 GW by 2020. According to the reports Huang Li, head of energy conservation and equipment at the National Energy Administration has indicated at a meeting in Chengdu, Sichuan province that "The severe winter weather earlier this year in southern China that paralyzed electricity supplies and coal transportation exposed risks and vulnerability in the traditional power supply system." She added, "The global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions had prompted China, which relied heavily on coal, to revise its energy strategy and increase the proportion of clean energy."
The current installed capacity of nuclear power is only about 9 GW, or 1.3% of the total installed electricity generating capacity. Huge capacity for nuclear generation growth...which is good for near term uranium producers....eg AGS

High Level China Delegation in Australia

China is not ignoring Australia as it sets about getting a march on the severely injured USA. A senior leader of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Zhou Yongkang yesterday met with Stephen Smith. "Australia is one of the earliest Western countries to forge diplomatic relationship with China," Zhou told Smith, noting the two were important countries in the Asia-Pacific region.(They met in WA so maybe that is China's definition of Australia!!)
Smith raved on about how Australia and China enjoyed extensive political, economic and cultural foundations and how the frequent high level visits injected a new vitality into bilateral relations.Part of the rave suggested that the Australian government has always adhered to the one-China policy and believed mutual trust and respect contributed to the rapid growth of bilateral ties.
Hmm!! wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that President Obama is an Atlantic man rather than a Pacific one. Watch the China/ Australian relationship grow.

China and Taiwan get closer.

China and Taiwan are getting cosier. It seems Taiwan accepts the declining capacity of America and Japan to support it....and how right that is!
A new trade pact reached on Tuesday will take effect in 40 days. Included is an increase in direct cross-strait flights, direct shipping and postal links, and increased co-operation on food safety in the wake of the recent melamine contaminations. Over five million Taiwanese travel to China each year and the agreements are expected to reduce travel time and costs. This is a very significant move...The Taiwanese Government knows it will meet with opposition at home so it must see significant benefits in it.
China is accelerating its strategy to out pace the U.S. and will use its huge foreign currency reserves to keep its growth on track....(altho' Western pundits are all gloom and doom) As I have said before....don't get bearish on ASX small near term commodity producers..the rulers are being run over a few.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

China 's weekend crack down on the food chain

Contacts in H.K. tell me that China has confiscated and destroyed more than 3,600 tons of animal feed tainted with melamine over the weekend.If this is accurate it will be the biggest food safety crackdown in years.Apparently the government has closed 238 illegal feed makers after a massive operation involving more than 369,000 government inspectors.Again if this is accurate this is a huge shift in Central Government attitude.It is a very clear indication that China wants to operate in global markets as credible suppliers.It fits with its moves to establish itself as major, if not the major, global economy. Watch this space.

Hot Copper forums so informative

I have searched and read many share oriented forums...but you really can't beat Hot Copper for well informed, well debated views on stock markets around the world. Yes I post but have no other interest. It is a winner where ever you are..

China moves to recognise women's rights

The Chinese President Hu Jintao who is also General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chairman of the Central Military Commission said today Nov 2nd that Chinese women have made extraordinary contributions to the progress of the nation's civilization and economic growth, from the revolutionary wartime to the current socialist construction and reform. The President said Chinese women deserved the title of "half of the sky", which means they are now equal to men......China has a careful plan to make itself acceptable to the West as it over takes the US as the driving economic force for the next decade. The long march continues

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Republican Party to investigate itself

THE Republican Party has began to investigate what it knows will be a landslide defeat at the polls this week.Not only will the Party loose the Presidency but it will also end up with low low numbers in the Congress. .Senior figures in the party are picking over the bones of the George Bush era and turning their attention to reviving a Republican brand that has declined rapidly since control of Congress was lost in the 2006 mid-term elections.
Now really that is an investigation that should not take any longer than a day or so!!
Reason 1. George Bush
Reason 2. George Bush
Reason 3. George Bush.

The Republicans have allowed its executive government under George to recklessly plunge the Country into crippling debt,to engage in pointless and cruel wars,to be subject to global isolation and to alienate large sectors of its citizens. They have angered middle America, denied the very existence of the poor and rewarded the mega rich. Its time to wake up to the fact that America consists of more than extreme right fundamentalist christians.(It always has of course).
No one was strong enough to eyeball George Bush as he broke one International law after another. The Republicans lacked courage and seemed to be devoid of conviction.

The principles of low spending, small government, care of your citizens etc were abandoned during Bush's eight years in office. George Bush had absolutely no intellectual capacity to embrace even the basic fundamentals of democratic governance. His knowledge of his own country once he reached the Texan border was abysmal. His knowledge of the world was still based on his elementary education. He did not have a passport when elected!!! His responses to domestic crises were dim witted and appalling. George was an absolute failure without one re-deeming quality.
Yes the investigation shouldn't take long! ie if the Republicans have any talent left.

Sunday morning coming down

I sat at a table last night with some other traders/investors. Some are in the business others are active traders or investors. All have taken a thump from the current situation. A few have had to sell some of their positions due to leveraging. In the last week all have been buyers believing that the forced selling as margin calls came rolling in is near the end. Two have been active traders attempting to buy and sell into the dips and rallies. Now there were only 8 of us at the table but I think if you could network similar groups at the moment the sentiment would not be too different.
Credit is thawing, overnight inter bank rates are down and still moving down. All key economies are seeing domestic rates fall. All at the table shared my opinion that China will not miss this unique opportunity to steal a big break on the cash strapped West. They have enormous cash reserves to pump into the economy and the capacity to make internal structural adjustments. Examples so far.....$US290 billion into rail infra structure, removing the restrictions on farmers to trade their land rights, lowering interest rates, freeing up the urban real real estate markets by reducing taxes etc, grabbing the chance to do a deal with troubled Russia to build a massive capacity pipeline extension etc etc.
All saw opportunities in Australian resources and agricultural companies and their supply chain companies. The mood was much brighter than a month ago. Those on the workshop floor were saying client contact was resuming from those who hibernated, who didn't panic and are liquid. One who works mainly in H.K. said the panic was primarily over. The sheer speculative money that had driven the Chinese buying had been cleaned up. Sovereign funds were on the ready.
Because of the low debt ratio in the mortgage market major problems would not arise in the H.K. or Chinese domestic market. A slowdown no doubt but the Chinese Government will keep the Commercial market alive.
So a positive night........which eventually descended into red wine driven outrageous solutions to any world topic introduced. The wines were Black Jack Shiraz, Torzi Matthews Frost Dodger and Bannockburn Shiraz......and as usual the women at the table had by far the best palates for identifying the wines. Its a turning market it seems but it won't be a rocket. (Although as I have suggested previously AGS could be one.) And Newport for the Melbourne Cup...I backed him at big odds in Sydney so have to follow up!